Everything ranked in order of what I currently think is most likely.
Most Predicted Nominations
The Fablemans – 10
Best Picture
Everything Everywhere all at Once
The Fablemans
The Banshees of Inisherin
Top Gun: Maverick
Avatar: The Way of Water
Women Talking
TAR
Elvis
Babylon
RRR
Major Surprise – Aftersun/The Woman King
Best Director
Steven Spielberg – The Fablemans
Daniels – Everything Everywhere all at Once
James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Sarah Polley – Women Talking
Major Surprise – Todd Field/Damien Chazelle
Best Actor
Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser – The Whale
Austin Butler – Elvis
Bill Nighy – Living
Paul Mescal – Aftersun
Major Surprise – Hugh Jackman/Tom Cruise
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett – TAR
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere all at Once
Michelle Williams – The Fablemans
Danielle Deadwyler – Till
Margot Robbie – Babylon
Major Surprise – Viola Davis/Ana de Armas
Best Supporting Actor
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere all at Once
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Dano – The Fablemans
Ben Whishaw – Women Talking
Major Surprise – Judd Hirsch/Brian Tyree Henry
Best Supporting Actress
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
Jessie Buckley – Women Talking
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere all at Once
Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Claire Foy – Women Talking
Major Surprise – Stephanie Hsu/Dolly de Leon
Best Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere all at Once
The Fablemans
TAR
Triangle of Sadness
Major Surprise – Aftersun/Babylon
Best Adapted Screenplay
Women Talking
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story
Living
The Whale
She Said
Major Surprise – White Noise/Bones & All
Best Animated Feature
Pinocchio
Turning Red
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
My Father’s Dragon
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Major Surprise – Wendell and Wild/The Bad Guys
Best Documentary Feature
Navalny
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
Descendant
All That Breathes
Major Surprise – Good Night Oppy/ The Territory
Best International Feature
Decision to Leave
All Quiet on the Western Front
Close
Bardo
EO
Major Surprise – Saint Omer/Holy Spider
Best Cinematography
Top Gun: Maverick
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Fablemans
Babylon
Empire of Light
Major Surprise – All Quiet on the Western Front/Bardo
Best Film Editing
Everything Everywhere all at Once
Top Gun: Maverick
The Fablemans
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Major Surprise – Avatar: The Way of Water/Babylon
Best Production Design
Babylon
Elvis
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Fablemans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Major Surprise – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever/Pinocchio
Best Costume Design
Elvis
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
The Woman King
The Fablemans
Major Surprise – Mrs Harris Goes to Paris/Corsage
Best Make-Up and Hairstyling
The Whale
Elvis
The Batman
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Major Surprise – All Quiet on the Western Front/Blonde
Best Sound
Top Gun: Maverick
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
The Batman
Babylon
Major Surprise – All Quiet on the Western Front/Everything Everywhere all at Once
Best Visual Effects
Avatar: The Way of Water
Top Gun: Maverick
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
All Quiet on the Western Front
Major Surprise – Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness/Nope
Best Original Score
The Fablemans
Women Talking
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Avatar: The Way of Water
Major Surprise – Pinocchio/Everything Everywhere all at Once
Best Original Song
“Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick
“Naatu Naatu” – RRR
“Lift Me Up” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Ciao Papa” – Pinocchio
“Carolina” – Where the Crawdads Sing
Major Surprise – “New Body Rhumba” – White Noise/ “Applause” – Tell It Like a Woman
Howe's World of Film and TV 