Everything ranked in order of what I currently think is most likely.
Most Predicted Nominations
Babylon – 11
Best Picture
The Fablemans
Everything Everywhere all at Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
Babylon
TAR
The Whale
She Said
Aftersun
Major Surprise – Avatar: The Way of Water/Triangle of Sadness
Best Director
Steven Spielberg – The Fablemans
Daniels – Everything Everywhere all at Once
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Sarah Polley – Women Talking
Damien Chazelle – Babylon
Major Surprise – Ruben Ostlund/Alejandro G. Inarritu
Best Actor
Brendan Fraser – The Whale
Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
Austin Butler – Elvis
Bill Nighy – Living
Paul Mescal – Aftersun
Major Surprise – Hugh Jackman/Daniel Giménez Cacho
Best Actress
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere all at Once
Cate Blanchett – TAR
Michelle Williams – The Fablemans
Margot Robbie – Babylon
Danielle Deadwyler – Till
Major Surprise – Naomi Ackie/Olivia Colman
Best Supporting Actor
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere all at Once
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Dano – The Fablemans
Ben Whishaw – Women Talking
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
Major Surprise – Judd Hirsch/Mark Rylance
Best Supporting Actress
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
Jessie Buckley – Women Talking
Claire Foy – Women Talking
Hong Chau – The Whale
Carey Mulligan – She Said
Major Surprise – Jamie Lee Curtis/Dolly de Leon
Best Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere all at Once
The Fablemans
Triangle of Sadness
Babylon
Major Surprise – Aftersun/TAR
Best Adapted Screenplay
Women Talking
The Whale
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story
She Said
Living
Major Surprise – White Noise/Bones & All
Best Animated Feature
Pinocchio
Turning Red
Strange World
My Father’s Dragon
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Major Surprise – Wendell and Wild/The Sea Monster
Best Documentary Feature
Navalny
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
The Territory
Descendant
Major Surprise – Good Night Oppy/Sr.
Best International Feature
Decision to Leave
All Quiet on the Western Front
Bardo
Close
Holy Spider
Major Surprise – Saint Omer/EO
Best Cinematography
Babylon
The Fablemans
Avatar: The Way of Water
Bardo
Empire of Light
Major Surprise – All Quiet on the Western Front/Top Gun: Maverick
Best Film Editing
Everything Everywhere all at Once
Top Gun: Maverick
The Fablemans
The Banshees of Inisherin
Babylon
Major Surprise – Women Talking/Elvis
Best Production Design
Babylon
Elvis
The Fablemans
Avatar: The Way of Water
Pinocchio
Major Surprise – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever/Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Costume Design
Babylon
Elvis
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Mrs Harris Goes to Paris
The Fablemans
Major Surprise – Everything Everywhere All at Once/The Woman King
Best Make-Up and Hairstyling
The Whale
Elvis
Babylon
The Batman
Everything Everywhere all at Once
Major Surprise – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever/X
Best Sound
Top Gun: Maverick
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Batman
Major Surprise – All Quiet on the Western Front/Everything Everywhere all at Once
Best Visual Effects
Avatar: The Way of Water
Top Gun: Maverick
Everything Everywhere all at Once
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Major Surprise – Pinocchio/Nope
Best Original Score
Babylon
The Fablemans
Women Talking
The Banshees of Inisherin
Empire of Light
Major Surprise – Pinocchio/The Batman
Best Original Song
“Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick
“Lift Me Up” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Ciao Papa” – Pinocchio
“Naatu Naatu” – RRR
“Carolina” – Where the Crawdads Sing
Major Surprise – “Nobody Like U” – Turning Red/” Applause” – Tell It Like a Woman
Howe's World of Film and TV 